There is much sturm und drang about super delegates. How should they vote? At first, we heard they should vote as their state went. Recently, Tad Devine has suggested they should vote however the last votes go, no matter how the early ones went. No doubt, the target will keep moving.
But if we separate ourselves from the candidate we prefer, what is the best way for a super to vote?
The most obvious answer is, “however the hell they want.” That’s why they’re super delegates and not bound at all.
But that answer bothers a lot of people. (Though truth be told, many such opinions tend to be quite malleable, depending upon how the results help or hurt their preferred candidate.)
But a better answer is probably, “the way the people they represent voted, unless there is a strong reason not to.”
Given that many here believe both Sanders and Clinton would be good candidates, let’s assume for a moment there is no “strong reason not to.” What would that leave us?
Let’s look at how it might break down, shall we? This assumes that super delegates who are Congress critters vote the same way their district voted, and Senators, Governors, and at-large supers vote the way their state did.
IOWA
Iowa was the first state to vote. It has 8 super delegates, but 7 are from the DNC and 1 is a Representative. The only way to figure out which way the Rep SD should go was looking at caucus results county by county, and I got Sanders winning it, 18, 528 to 16,695.
Clinton won the State, so she gets 7, Sanders gets 1.
Running total so far, Clinton 7, Sanders 1.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire has 8 super delegates, including two Senator, a Representative, and a Governor. Sanders should get them all.
Running total so far, Sanders 9, Clinton 7.
Nevada
Nevada has 8 super delegates, including a Senator and a Rep. The Rep is Dina Titus and Clinton won her district, as well as the state.
Running total — Clinton 15, Sanders 9.
South Carolina
South Carolina has 6 super delegates (can we talk again about how absurd it is that Iowa and New Hampshire lead the pack — Why the hell do those two very white states, including one very small white state, have more supers than South Carolina? How much more can we do to diminish the value of Black votes?), including just one Rep. The rest are DNC. The Rep is Jim Clyburne.
Running total — Clinton 21, Sanders 9.
Alabama
It has 7 super delegates. 6 are DNC, one is for Representative Terri Sewell’s district. Clinton won every county in Alabama.
Running total — Clinton 28, Sanders 9.
Arkansas
Arkansas has 6 super delegates, all DNC.
Running total — Clinton 32, Sanders 9.
Colorado
Colorado has 12 super delegates. That includes a Senator, a Governor, and three Representatives. Sanders gets them all.
Running total — Clinton 32, Sanders 21.
Georgia
Georgia has 15 super delegates. Clinton won all but one county in Georgia, and every congressional district.
Running total — Clinton 47, Sanders 21.
Massachusetts
Massachusetts has 25 super delegates, including 2 Senators and 9 Representatives. Just eyeballing results by county, it looks like they broke down like this:
- Richard Neal, 1st District — Sanders
- Jim McGovern, 2nd District — Sanders
- Niki Tsongas, 3rd District — Clinton
- Joe Kennedy III, 4th District — Clinton
- Katherine Clark, 5th District — Sanders
- Seth Moulton, 6th District — Clinton
- Mike Capuano, 7th District — Sanders
- Stephen Lynch, 8th District — Clinton
- Bill Keating, 9th District — Sanders
That would give Sanders 5 of the 25 supers.
Running total — Clinton 67, Sanders 26.
Minnesota
There are 16 super delegates in Minnesota. Based upon caucus results, they all go to Sanders.
Running total — Clinton 67, Sanders 42.
Oklahoma
All four Oklahoma super delegates are DNC. They go to Sanders.
Running total — Clinton 67, Sanders 46.
Tennessee
Tennessee has 9, including 3 Rep districts. Clinton won all 3.
Clinton 76, Sanders 46.
Texas
Texas has 29 super delegates. 11 are for representatives. Sanders won the one in Austin.
Clinton 104, Sanders 47.
Vermont
Vermont has 10 supers.
Clinton 104, Sanders 57.
Virginia
There are 14 supers in Virginia, including 3 congressional districts. Clinton won all 3.
Clinton 118, Sanders 57.
American Samoa
Clinton gets all 5 from American Samoa.
Clinton 123, Sanders 57.
Democrats Abroad
There are 8 DA super delegates, but they only get half a vote each.
Clinton 123, sanders 61.
Louisiana
There are 8 Louisiana supers, including once congressional district, which Clinton won.
Clinton 131, Sanders 61.
Nebraska
5 supers, including a congressional district Sanders won.
Clinton 131, Sanders 66.
Maine
Maine has DNC supers and a congressional one.
Clinton 131, Sanders 71.
Michigan
Michigan has 17 supers, including 5 Reps and 2 Senators (Oh how I wish we also had one for Governor). These include (eyeballing it again):
- Dan Kildee, 5th Congressional District — Sanders
- Sander Levin, 9th Congressional District — Clinton
- Debbie Dingel, 12th Congressional District — Clinton
- John Conyers, 13th Congressional District — Clinton
- Brenda Lawrence, 14th Congressional District — Clinton
Sanders won the state, so that gives us:
Clinton 136, Sanders 83.
Mississippi
Clinton gets all 5 of these.
Clinton 141, Sanders 83.
Florida
Sanders supporters might want to look away for a minute.
Florida has 32 super delegates. Clinton gets all of them.
Clinton 173, Sanders 83.
North Carolina
North Carolina has 14. Clinton won all three congressional district supers.
Clinton 187, Sanders 83.
Illinois
Illinois has 26 super delegates, including 10 Rep districts (still just eyeballing).
- Bobby Rush, 1st Congressional District — Clinton
- Robin Kelly, 2nd Congressional District — Clinton
- Dan Lapinski, 3rd Congressional District — Clinton
- Luis Gutierrez, 4th Congressional District — Clinton
- Mike Quigly, 5th Congressional District — Clinton
- Danny Davis, 7th Congressional District — Clinton
- Tammy Duckworth, 8th Congressional District — Clinton
- Jan Schakowsky, 9th Congress District — Clinton
- Bill Foster, 11th Congressional District — Clinton
- Cheri Bustos, 17th Congressional District — Sanders
Running total — Clinton 212, Sanders 84.
Missouri
Missouri has 13 supers, with 2 from congressional districts. Clinton won both of them.
Clinton 225, Sanders 84.
Ohio
Of Ohio’s 16 supers, only 4 come from representatives:
- Joyce Beatty, 3rd Congressional District — Clinton
- Marcy Kaptur, 9th Congressional District — Clinton
- Marcia Fudge, 11th Congressional District — Clinton
- Tim Ryan, 13th Congressional District — Clinton
Running Total — Clinton 241, Sanders 84.
Conclusion
If you assign super delegates based upon who won the state or district somebody represents, then Clinton would have a whopping lead of 241-84.
Please, if anybody has better information on how an individual Congressional District went, I’d be happy to make the change.
Did I miss anything?