Going into the Iowa caucus, these were the stories we were seeing:
Record Turnout Expected To Strain Iowa Caucus Sites
On Monday, Iowa Democrats are expecting a record turnout as they kick off the process of choosing a nominee to run against President Trump. Iowa Public Radio's Kate Payne reports that could push some caucus sites to their limit.
‘The largest turnout we’ve ever had:’ Iowa to kick off Trump-fueled voter surge in 2020
Monday’s Iowa caucuses are expected to draw near-record Democratic turnout, reaching or even surpassing the historic number set in 2008 amid a clash between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
and this:
It's a cliché because it's true: It all comes down to turnout in Iowa
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is betting on turnout that would break 2008's record of nearly 240,000, growing his progressive base by adding first-time caucus-goers who are younger and heavily Latino.
That last one is important, because it goes to the heart of an argument we’ve been having about how best to beat Trump. Should we focus on targeting the 80,000 voters we lost in just three states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Or should we count on an army of enthusiastic new young voters? That, when it comes right down to it, is the ‘Most Progressive Candidate vs. Progressive Candidate’ argument we’ve tossed around, and at each other, since the primary season started.
“Pick Biden,” we’re told, “because he’s the most like to turn those three states blue.”“But an army of new voters will follow Bernie,” comes the answer, “sweeping in a revolution, not just in the White House, but across the nation.”
So what happened?
Official: Iowa caucus turnout on pace to match 2016 levels
It was too soon to tell what final turnout numbers will be, amid delays in reporting results. But Iowa Democratic Party Communications Director Mandy McClure said early indications were turnout was on pace to match 2016, when about 170,000 people participated. The high-water mark for the contest was the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses, when nearly 240,000 participated and Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and other candidates.
and even more alarming:
Iowa caucuses turnout: Entrance poll shows dip in first-timers
Iowa's presidential caucuses were expected to draw record turnout Monday, but early data from the NBC News entrance poll show a big dip in participants attending a Democratic caucus for the first time.
That’s not good. That’s not just not good for Bernie. It’s not good for any of us. If enthusiasm is lower than expected then we, as a party, need to seriously consider how to get through the Electoral College to the White House, and it has to be based on political calculation of the possible, not enthusiastic embrace of the imaginary.
So while everybody is bemoaning Iowa’s overblown importance and its utter incompetence, wondering if we’ll ever actually know who “won” (I, for one, would not be surprised to see a result cobbled together and wrapped up in a “WE DID IT” bow in a desperate effort to retain the precious white primacy), let’s keep our eye on the truly important ball, the Electoral College.
In short, Bernie’s argument, that only he can attract the hordes of enthusiastic new voters to create a wave we can all win to victory, took a huge hit last night in Iowa, no matter what “results” they feed us.
It’s time to start focusing on those 80,000 missing votes.
I’ll support the candidate most likely to get them.
Will you?